HEXUS.sharewatch: Q2 earnings week for Intel and AMD

by Scott Bicheno on 14 July 2008, 11:10

Tags: AMD (NYSE:AMD)

Quick Link: HEXUS.net/qaoav

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Intel and the rest

Of course Intel could find $3 billion pretty easily too, but it’s highly unlikely that the monopoly police would look too kindly on Intel acquiring its only real competitor in the CPU space. In fact, for that reason you could argue that Intel has as big a vested interest as anyone in the continued existence of AMD. It just doesn’t want it getting all carried away and producing better processors like it did a few years ago.

Intel will be announcing its Q2 financials tomorrow and is officially launching its Centrino 2 laptop platform today. Its share price seems pretty stable at the moment, implying that recent developments have already been priced into its share price and that investors aren’t that bothered about what its semiconductor competitors are up to.

The other big semiconductor company is, of course, NVIDIA. Our last HEXUS.sharewatch was a special brought on by NVIDIA’s announcement of two bits of major bad news and the consequent beating to its shares. They lost 30 percent in the immediate aftermath and have lost a further ten percent subsequently. The combined market cap of NVIDIA and AMD is now under ten billion dollars.

There were no other major losers in the past week, but Yahoo! has gained 9.2 percent amid indications that Microsoft might still buy it as long as Carl Icahn can replace the current boards with a more amenable one.

Company Listing Share Price 20/6/08 Share Price 27/6/08 Share Price 3/7/08* Share Price 11/7/08 8-day change* Market cap (bn)
AMD AMD 6.99 5.95
 5.17 4.84 -6.4% 2.94
Apple AAPL 175.27 170.09 168.00 172.58 2.7% 152.15
Avnet AVT 29.15 27.55 24.83 25.50 2.7% 3.84
Dell DELL 23.40 22.25 22.94 22.31 -2.7% 45.09
Google GOOG 546.43 528.07 530.99 533.80 0.6% 167.66
HP HPQ 45.64 44.58 42.72 41.59 -2.6% 102.57
IBM IBM 122.74 120.05 118.56 122.12 3.0% 167.73
Ingram Micro
 IM 18.00 17.81 17.16 16.82 -2.0% 2.83
Intel INTC 22.37 21.49 20.46 20.64 0.9% 118.23
Microsoft MSFT 28.23 27.63 25.90 25.25 -2.5% 235.16
NVIDIA NVDA 19.76
19.28 13.04 11.67 -10.5% 6.47
Tech Data
 TECD 34.71 34.13 34.65 33.85 -2.3% 1.79
Yahoo!
 YHOO 21.99 21.33 21.59 23.57 9.2% 32.43
Dow .DJI 11842.69 11346.51 11210.05 11100.54 -1.0% NA
NASDAQ .IXIC 2406.09 2315.63 2239.52 2239.08 -0.02% NA
FTSE 100 .FTSE 5620.80 5529.90 5439.90 5261.60 -3.3% NA

*All prices are those at close of trading on the date specified, except 3/7/08 when we quoted prices and market caps at 15:00 UK time, 10:00 US eastern time.


Related reading:

AMD to take a further $880 million impairment charge from ATI acquisition

HEXUS.beans :: NVIDIA ConnectorGate Issue

HEXUS.sharewatch special: NVIDIA stock drops by 30% soon after opening

AMD GPU sales VP says “At last we’re making a dent in NVIDIA”

AMD timeline

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Posted by drunkenmaster - Mon 14 Jul 2008 16:07
ITs a very difficult situation to get into really because, frankly the 8 day changes, and the 1 month changes don't mean squat at the moment. If you take the monthly changes for the last year you'll see (almost) everyone down massively. Nvidia were at $40 end of last year, now $12, AMD i think got up to $12-14 or something and are down just under $5 now. Intel are down, everyones down. THe economy credit crunch and recession talk around the globe(well america and uk) in the last year, banks getting into trouble and needing to be bailed out has caused the drops(amongst many other reasons). So the value of ATi then and now isn't really comparable, it didn't go down because they were bought. However, AMD almost certainly wouldn't get the funding, capital and loans right now, to buy AMD so in that sense they bought at the perfect time, as in, before they couldn't.

But whats the situation now? Well it would seem companies like dell are having fairly large numbers of Nvidia notebooks fail and deciding to ship out AMD replacements(being the rumour). Dell have also gone from near zero ATi options a year/two ago to having a pretty massive ATi pressence. How does this help, well, now AMD own ATi, now if Dell want ATi cards, and more of them, its good for AMD aswell as ATi. But if Dell want even better deals on ATi cards, what do AMD offer them, decent price on ATi cards, but massive deals on a spider platform.

This is where Ruiz was 100% correct, its about a platform, a good, cheap, competitive platform that can be sold as a package to make it easier to sell and easier to use. ATi had a semi rough time last year, but all the delays were in basically, avoiding the hell out of the 65nm process as it sucks, which Nvidia didn't take notice of and waded in to their own demise. This generation they will lose every single price point, and single card speed(in a few days anyway).

AMD are actually pretty well set, as of right now, to make some big deals all over the place for whole platforms benefiting ATi and AMD sides with big sales, the two separately wouldn't be in the same strong position, and if AMD didn't buy ATi exactly when they did, they simply would not be able to afford them now.

With rumours abound at just how far Nvidia's latest problem might spread(ie, entire g84/86 series, and a chance of desktop problems and possibly other lines), the next few months could see multiple more $100-200million 1 off hits that Nvidia will be taking. But its not the money in sending out replacements that will hurt nvidia most, its the reputation hit, and with that lost sales to the likes of Dell, and what will hurt Nvidia the most, is every sale lost because people don't trust their cards will go to ATi.