Intel hits out at Gartner WiMAX claims

by Scott Bicheno on 22 July 2008, 16:53

Tags: Intel (NASDAQ:INTC)

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Bitch-slap

However, he saves his most disdainful and stingingly effective bitch-slap for last. “I have 15 years in the Telecommunications industry, and I would expect better research from a fresh faced kid out of College,” Ofili fulminates. “Such ‘analysis’ from Gartner should be supplied with a warning: ‘Not intended to inform strategic business decisions’. The LTE gang must really fear WiMAX. Otherwise, why all the attention and erroneous analyses?”

We contacted Gartner for its response to these comments, but it seemed to be initially lost for words. In line with our leading HEXUS Right2Reply initiative, HEXUS.channel will publish any comment as soon as it’s received.

 

UPDATE - 17:45 22nd July 2008:

It looks like Ofili didn’t think he made his point clearly enough in his first post, so he’s added another today.

This one is entitled “Will LTE become the 'Red Headed Stepchild' for the Telco's?” It begins: “There is a lot of talk these days about Telco’s deploying LTE, etc, etc…. Let’s ignore the fact that LTE remains ‘Vaporware’ today, (all talk, and no product in sight, not even an IEEE standard in sight).”

Having ignored that fact, Ofili goes on to make this statement: “So, if and when it does get here, then how will the proponents of LTE position it? LTE, and WiMAX for that matter, are both packet technologies. WiMAX is super fast, open, no walled garden, etc, just the internet we know and love, but mobile. LTE is being positioned as essentially the same as WiMAX.

“Gosh, I can’t help but wonder about the effect of positioning LTE beside DSL, or LTE beside traditional semi-walled garden 3G services. Looks to me like the incumbents have a cannibalization problem on their hands. No surprise, since WiMAX and LTE are both disruptive.

“Simply cloning WiMAX and renaming it LTE does not change the fact that it is a highly disruptive technology. I have not seen business models from the Telco’s that take WiMAX/LTE into consideration. For the Telco’s, whether they deploy WiMAX, or WiMAX by a different name (LTE), the incumbents still face the same problem: DSL, Home Phone, & Cellular service, are in for a serious shake up. What do you think?”



HEXUS Forums :: 1 Comment

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Ofili has a series of good points.
Gartner positions are based on speculation and not on any serious facts.
I want to look at WiMAX that is real today and ignore the futures of any LTE Network which will cause major financials problems/business case justification (forklift upgrade) for any Carrier moving from EV-DO and or HSDPA to LTE.

Lets look at a few facts and challenges for WiMAX:
-WiMAX is working today worldwide in Fixed and Nomadic/Portable services (802.16-2004).
-I would expect Mobile WiMAX to be provided in major US market (Tier#1 & 2) by end of 2010.
-The WIMAX network by design is open to both CPE and Applications and will deliver true Broadband Wireless services (2-4Mbps/Sub).
-The WiMAX Forum has finally realized that it also needs a FDD based system if it is to address future 4G networks.

WiMAX challenges:
-It is based on the 2.5Ghz Licensed spectrum, which will severly limits its ability to provide a Carrier Grade Mobile Wireless network nationwide-especially in Rural and Suburban markets where foliage will bring it to its knees. Not sure the 100Mhz of spectrum will help in In Building penetration either.
-If it wants to address the 4G world, the WiMAX forum must aggressively seek to get approval for a FDD based system that can operate in the AWS (1700Mhz & 2100Mhz) Licensed spectrum. The Clearwire teams MSO partners have significant AWS Spectrum nationwide and can help.
-The only other available spectrum that might help WiMAX attain a true 4G service is 700Mhz and the Big Carriers have already locked up most of that and will dominate the CPE side of that business as well. In addition most of the avaialable 700Mhz spectrum is only 12Mhz deep.
-The new Gobi Chip & SDR from Qualcomm might very well cause serious problems for WiMAX as configured. I would expect that most future Laptops and many new customer access devices will ultimately be deployed with only the following 3 RF capabilities: LTE (700Mhz) for Voice & Data, MediaFlo for Broadcast Video/TV and finally a 802.11n (dual radio) for inbuilding WiFi/WLAN capability. This should pretty much cover the Fixed, Portable and Mobile Wireless markets.

Now a little on future LTE-DreamWorld stuff
-Real world expectations on deployment of any Nationwide LTE network is looking like 2012-2013.Verizon Wireless will lead here maybe as early as 2011.
-Not much discussion (by analysts or vendors) on how to cost justify upgrading (Forklift) existing 3G Nets, which have yet to be paid for, to a new unproven technology (LTE). Not to mention what to do with the Upteen Billion 3G customers using single mode phones.
-The big boys (VW and AT&T) have both committed to deploy a LTE network based on the new 700Mhz spectrum that many analyst and most vendors say is key to providing a Mobile Wireless network covering both Urban and Rural markets. The 2.5GHz based Mobile WiMAX Networks will shine in urban canyons where it can leverage the OFDMA/Multipath features but will struggle in Suburban and Rural markets where foliage will cause serious problems


What can a Provider with 12Mhz of 700MHz Spectrum and 20MHz of AWS Spectrum do to provide a serious Broadband Wireless Network in its markets allowing it to compete with existing 3g and future 4G Cell based Voice/Data Networks??

Jim A