Return to seasonality?
The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) has reported a quarter-on-quarter increase in global semiconductor sales of 16.9 percent. While this still represented a decline of over 20 percent on the same period a year ago, the June figures improved by 3.7 percent on the previous month.
"The fourth-consecutive monthly increase in sales is one indicator the industry is returning to normal seasonal growth patterns," said SIA President George Scalise. "Inventories have been closely managed, encouraging us to believe that the sequential increase in quarterly sales represents a gradual recovery of demand."
Scalise reckons other market watchers are also getting more bullish with their forecasts. "Consensus estimates for unit sales of PCs are now in the range of minus 5 percent to flat compared to 2008, whereas earlier forecasts were projecting year-on-year unit declines of 9 to 12 percent." he said.
"In cell phone handsets, analysts now believe the unit decline will be in the range of 7 to 9 percent compared to earlier forecasts of a decline of around 15 percent. PCs and cell phones account for nearly 60 percent of worldwide semiconductor consumption."
Unfortunately, Europe remained the sick man of the semiconductor recovery. As you can see in the first chart below, sales seem to be at their nadir in Europe, while they're improving rapidly everywhere else. However, this does provide some hope that Europe will follow suit before long.
The second chart provides evidence that things never got so bad for the semiconductor industry during this recession as they did after the dotcom bubble burst.
