ARM-based chips predicted to dominate ultra-mobile devices

by Scott Bicheno on 22 January 2010, 10:23

Tags: ARM, ABI Research

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Changing of the guard

The ultra-mobile device category has an irritatingly large number of sub-sets, with the tablet form-factor now a major addition.

As a broad definition we would say it encompasses all devices that run on a very lower power platform (Atom and below), but are too big to fit in your pocket. So that includes netbooks, but not thin-and-light notebooks and tablets but not smartphones.

Market researcher ABI research seems to agree and it has predicted that by 2013 platforms using the ARM instruction set, which includes SoCs like Qualcomm's Snapdragon and NVIDIA's Tegra, will replace x86 (essentially Intel in this category) as the most common  platforms on ultra-mobile devices.

This year is essentially year 1 for ARM-based ultra-mobile devices, with CES featuring a bunch of launches from the likes of Lenovo that fit into this category and many more - not least whatever Apple has up its sleeve - expected to come. "2010 will be pivotal for building momentum behind non-x86 solutions, and gaining adoption in both distribution channels and by end-user populations worldwide," said Jeff Orr, senior analyst at ABI.

An equally important by-product of this trend is expected to be soaring demand for wireless data services. "Operators are working out their strategies for capacity expansion based on today's best expectations of future demand from data-centric devices," said Orr. "The main issues revolve around backhaul, followed by increased 3G and 4G BTS deployments."

 



HEXUS Forums :: 4 Comments

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Mmm, by 2014 surely Atom (or its replacement) will be smaller and will bring x86 more into the smartphone arena…
'[GSV
Trig;1859682']Mmm, by 2014 surely Atom (or its replacement) will be smaller and will bring x86 more into the smartphone arena…

No,

x86 is mearly an abstration layer ontop of a different CPU. The requirement for a specific instruction set is diminishing, x86 has no real purpose other than for legacy apps.
abaxas
x86 is mearly an abstration layer ontop of a different CPU. The requirement for a specific instruction set is diminishing, x86 has no real purpose other than for legacy apps.
Quite true, modern x86 CPUs hide a whole lot of activity and microcode behind the instruction set. And of course, with emulation, “legacy apps” can run on non-native machines.

I'd love to see a processor that either had the ability to switch between its native and x86 instruction set (basically a hypervisor that turns the x86 translations on/off). Or, I'd like to see a multi-core processor with x86 compatible elements in it that are used when necessary, but the rest of it is used natively under “normal” conditions.
The thing is most people have hudge investment in legacy x86 code. End users seam to mostly dislike java, finding it slow etc (there are of course exceptions like Opera Mini).

So something which can run all the existing code is great if its not at too much of a cost.

People have shown that they really don't value battery life above a certain threshold, just look at iPhone users. As such i'd say the trade off is mostly in space and cost.

RISC is by its nature easier to make very small physical packages, more chips per wafer, cheaper and smaller TDP too.

So I'd say its just a trade off between legacy code and cost. Given that most of these MID type thingies are used for very simple tasks (that is to say no one writes an essay on one) then you don't need to worry about the software too much, its not like netbooks where users prefer windows because they use them for a subset of their windows PCs.

Given that all of these MID things will be on a low price point, trying to differentiate themselves i'd say that its only logical that the lower cost ARM or XScale or Whatever chips are used over x86.

However I really doubt ANYONE will be using them on desktops :(
(pining for his old RISC PC!)