A new report by market data analysis firm IDC contains details and projections for the global mobile phone and smartphone market. Starting with expectations for the current year the company gives its projections up until 2016.
Smartphones
Year on year sales of smartphones are forecast to grow 38.8 per cent to 686 million units this year. Smartphones only make up 38 per cent of the market for mobile phones. Currently the smartphone market is dominated by Google Android and Apple iOS devices. However senior research analyst Kevin Restivo at IDC says “Smartphone growth will increasingly be driven by a triumvirate of smartphone operating systems, namely Android, iOS and Windows Phone 7.” As you can see from the table below Windows phone will achieve an impressive 46.2 per cent CAGR over the next 5 years.
IDC’s Ramon Llamas, from the Mobile Phone Technology and Trends team describes how the balance in smartphone operating systems will change: “Android will maintain leadership throughout our forecast, while others will gain more mobile operator partnerships (Apple) or currently find themselves in the midst of a major transition (BlackBerry and Windows Phone/Windows Mobile). What remains to be seen is how these different operating systems – as well as others – will define and shape the user experience beyond what we see today in order to attract new customers and encourage replacements.”
iOS market share is looking to stagnate due to new sales being based mostly upon replacement cycles. For good growth it would be necessary for Apple to appeal more to emerging markets, according to the report.
Windows Phone will gain share because of Nokia’s strength in emerging markets, say IDC. They admit the operating system has had a slow start but nevertheless are firm in their prediction. However they say it’s important to get Symbian OS users to join the Windows Phone ranks to “maintain relevancy”. Though IDC refer to “Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile” throughout the report it would probably be better to describe the market simply as Windows Phone because we already have version 7.5 Mango being the popular standard right now and Windows Phone 8 coming soonish. By 2016 we may well be at Windows Phone X!
Worldwide Smartphone Operating System 2012 and 2016 Market Share and 2012-2016 Compound Annual Growth Rate
|
Smartphone OS |
2012 Market Share |
2016 Market Share |
2012 - 2016 CAGR |
|
Android |
61.0% |
52.9% |
9.5% |
|
Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile |
5.2% |
19.2% |
46.2% |
|
iOS |
20.5% |
19.0% |
10.9% |
|
BlackBerry OS |
6.0% |
5.9% |
12.1% |
|
Others |
7.2% |
3.0% |
-5.4% |
|
Total |
100.0% |
100.0% |
12.7% |
Feature phones
Feature phone sales are expected to decline by 10 per cent this year but despite this decline the devices will still account for over 61 per cent of total mobile phone sales. IDC pin this decline on both uncertain economic and job markets and the rise of the smartphone.
