The next big thing
I concluded by asking Payne what his personal highlights were from CES 2010, and it turns out he's a bit of a sucker for a thin-and-light notebook. "I saw a better range of devices than I ever have before. Things like the Sony X series, the Dell Adamo and the LG thin-and light notebook," he said.
With Apple about to launch its take on the tablet, I expressed my surprise that we didn't see more Windows 7 based tablets at CES - especially with the multitouch functionality being such a major new feature - and asked Payne why that was the case.
"To some extent I think people (i.e. OEMS) are waiting to see if the opportunity matches the buzz," he said. "They trod quite carefully with the arrival of netbooks; there was a certain type of demand there, but it took a while. I suspect there's a place for tablets, but there's also some evolution that will need to come in terms of how they function."
I asked if Payne if he held the same view on ARM-based computers, which were a big feature at this year's event. "There was a phenomenal amount of innovation at CES and you can't help wondering how much of that will become commercially successful," he said.
"You need innovation but with more and more players entering what is essentially the consumer technology category, it's getting increasingly competitive. Consumers are embracing a lot of that, but you can only spend so many hours per day on Facebook and own so many gadgets, so it's hard to imagine that ever opportunity that comes up is going to be the next big thing."
Showing his influence endures, Payne left the last word for Microsoft's semi-retired chairman. "Bill Gates said we tend to overestimate the change in the next two years and underestimate the change in the next ten years, and I think that's very true at a time like today."
